Not the best title; I couldn't think of anything better. Sorry; I know that the absolutely nobody reading this is really going to be disappointed in the title, and for that I refuse to apologize. Demarco Murray is gone, and to the Philadelphia Eagles, no less; how much does it really end up hurting the Dallas Cowboys, though? That's actually a harder question that it appears, depending on how you view Murray's 2014-2015 season. Here's his stats:
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Since I'm pretty sure that didn't work, here's just a link to the site; not to be confused with the one to the past. What, I'm not a web designer! If I had the ability to customize the appearance and performance of the blog on my own, I wouldn't have to use blogger.
Look at the numbers, and then tell me this: what do you see in the previous three seasons that would lead you to believe that he was capable of having the type of season he just had? The correct answer, by the way, should be absolutely nothing. If, on top of that, you watched every one of those games - like I did - you would be even more hard pressed to believe it. Not that Murray isn't a talented running back; he obviously is. But I was never really that impressed with his performances in previous years: he was a little slow, didn't explode through the gaps like the more electrifying runners tended to do, and his lack of foot speed meant that some runs which might have ended in the zone specifically designated as "end", he would get caught by a safety and pulled down after 20 or thirty yards. On the other hand, he was almost always injured - he may not have missed a lot of games because of the injuries, but he definitely didn't have the impact on the games that he might been able to have, had he been healthy. But I never once said to myself, "I'm really excited that we have Demarco Murray; I think he could be the best running back in the NFL for at least one season." What I usually thought was, "I wonder if we can package him with Miles Austin for somebody useful, before the rest of the league realizes that they're more likely to get struck by lightning in an airplane flying through shark-infested airspace, than actually have another full, productive season." Turns out I was half-right about that; Austin is effectively done, but Murray might still have a shot.
That, to me, is the biggest question: how indicative was last year to Murray's future success? Was it the first of many great years to come, preceded by a few injury riddled, growing-pain seasons? Or was last year basically just Miles Austin's breakout 2009 season, after which he only ever had one more productive year (at the moment, at any rate). Players who are injury prone are such usually due to a combination of bad luck and genetics, which I guess could also be considered a form of luck, since you can't really choose what type of arches you have under your feet; you just have to live with it and hope you don't roll your ankles too often. That's why Greg Oden is out of the NBA, why Sam Bowie never panned out, and why Murray dropped so far in the draft back in 2011; and until the 2014-15 season, it was a legitimate concern. It's noteworthy also that even in the midst of that season, the biggest concern was whether or not he would be able to stay healthy, because he had never before shown the ability to do so. It's still a concern, in my opinion: you don't go from missing 4 games a year to never missing another game for the rest of your career, especially not when you're playing the most dangerous position in a violent sport.
Consider also that Dallas has one of the best offensive lines in the league; and while they may not yet have the experience that some other groups have, every time we needed a play throughout the year they came through with a big hole for Murray or protected Romo for enough time to create the play in the air. There were multiple games were he had over 5 seconds to make crucial plays down the stretch of big games, and that is all due to the lineman. The one, continuous image I have from every one of Murray's runs last year was the size of the holes that he was given; they were huge. I'm not trying to completely disregard what Murray was able to do with the gaps the lineman opened up for him, but remember: before the season, absolutely no one was picking Murray to have a big season. He wasn't on anyone's radar, not even the fantasy football sites which at least might have predicted a statistical uptick. If Murray had gone out with a torn ACL in preseason, no one would have been predicting doom for the season, the way I thought they were doomed when Sean Lee went down. All of this underscores just how marvelous the season was for Murray, but it also highlights a point that no one seems to talk about anymore: we never talked about him before the season because he wasn't that great of a player. He was a mediocre running back, just another Marion Barber, with slow feet and injury problems. Another very important factor: look at the number of carries he had last season. That is an insane amount; the Cowboys played like they were determined to run him into the ground. Emmitt Smith never had that many targets per game; he was close a couple of years, between 1992 and 1995, but for the most part he was down around 18-25 carries + receptions a game. So how much of Murray's success to we attribute to his massive workload? Also, very hard to say.
Hey, guess what? I have a long, incredibly over-thought comparison for just this situation, based off of one of my favorite teams of all time: the 2011 NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks. The 2015 Cowboys and the 2011 Mavs actually have a lot in common, despite the fact that they play extremely different sports. Lets start with the coaches: Rick Carlisle is one of the best coaches in the NBA, who has consistently demonstrated an uncanny ability to get more production from players than anyone would have expected (See Ellis, Monte). The Cowboys, likewise, have...no, not Jason Garrett; Rod Marinelli. Did you see what he did with what was supposed to be the worst defense in NFL history, simultaneously resurrecting the careers of 3 NFL players? He can do no wrong; he is my old, angry, drill-sergeant hero. On to the star of the team: an eccentrically brilliant superstar who had been maligned in recent years as too old to lead a team to a championship (a fair concern), and unfairly labeled as a "loser" who couldn't handle big game pressure. Ladies and gentleman, I give you Tony Romo/Dirk Nowitzki! Both feature a defense standout with the potential to be one of the best in the league, but who - due to injuries - has been overlooked in the recent season or two: Sean Lee, playing the role of Tyson Chandler. (Though to be fair, its unclear whether Lee can ever have the same impact on a team in a leadership role that Chandler has demonstrated the ability to have). Also, standing along-side the team leader is his veteran sidekick, the faithful old workhorse who always comes through when the team needs him, with big plays, big stops, and overall clutch performance: Jason Eugene Terry Witten. Follow that up with a cast of over-acheiving role players, and it's a pretty inspiring comparison so far, right? And I haven't even mentioned Dez Bryant, because that Mavericks team didn't ever have a second superstar of his caliber; of course, there are more positions on a football team, so there's bound to be more impact positions on the field than there are on a basketball court, so don't get too excited about it.
What the comparison hinges on, really, is the answer to the question: who is Demarco Murray? I can only come up with two relevant possibilities, one which makes the coming season look rather plesant, but the other could be damning. We'll start with hope, since there's always a surplus of it in the preseason: Demarco Murray is actually Caron Butler. Most people forget this, since he went down in January with a knee injury that kept him sidelined for the rest of the year - including playoffs - but Caron Butler was the Mavs' second leading scorer that year, and a big reason why they were having such a great season. When he went down, there were legitimate concerns that the Mavs wouldn't be able to replace his offense or his defense. But Shawn Marion, the Matrix, stepped in and provided more than enough of both, while fitting seamlessly into the starting unit. You can see where this is headed, right? What was thought to be a major blow to the team turned out to be a minor hitch., because the rest of the players were dialed in to a system that had been perfectly suited to their talents and abilities. Butler went down, his backup stepped in and filled the role admirably, and the Mavs went on the win the title. Hopefully, losing Murray will be similar for the 2015 Cowboys: the infrastructure and surrounding talent is good enough that Darren McFadden and a draft pick will be able to step in to provide enough of what Murray gave us, that they'll be fine without him. Although I don't think the team is good enough to win a Superbowl; I didn't last year, and they haven't gotten any better, so let's not get crazy about the predictions. But, if everything works out this way, then they could have a shot at the NFC championship. Maybe.
But there's also the chance that I have misdiagnosed the disease, and what I thought was a head cold turned out to the flu. What if Murray is actually Jason Kidd? Kidd never put up stats in 2011 anywhere near Murray's from last year, but if you remove Jason Kidd from that Mavs team, their entire offense sort of falls apart. It was built off of his ability to run the team, and his pass-first attitude rubbed off on the entire team; you may have notice it happening to the Knicks in 2013 every time he stepped on the court...until his jump-shot died and Mike Woodson decided that he was a liability, and tanked him through the entire playoffs. I'm just saying, if any Knicks fans were wondering what happened to all of the good feelings and ball-movement which seemed to abound during the regular season yet disappeared in May, that's why: Jason Kidd wasn't on the court anymore, and no one else knew how to pass the ball. What if losing Murray has the same effect on the Cowboys?
By the way, I don't have an answer for that. I hope that I'm right and the offensive line is good enough after another season to make up the difference with a lesser running back, but hope springs eternal in postseason and, for Cowboys fans, usually dies in December.
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