Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Kevin Love Killed Cleveland: My thoughts about the 2015 NBA Finals

     My initial thought is that David Blatt did a terrible job coaching that team in the finals, but no one really talked about it because Lebron was putting up such fantastic numbers in games which were, for the most part, relatively close; sure he shot somewhere around 35% for the series and played unfathomably passively for most of Game 6, but who (except for me) is going to care about that?  Blatt made two huge mistakes throughout this series, one which was pervasive and a second which was mostly evident only in Game 6.  The first mistake: refusing to play Shawn Marion; didn't even give the Matrix a chance.  He started nearly every game last season for the Mavericks, and played damn well for them, and at his best is the exact sort of player that Cleveland needed: offensive versatility and defensive toughness that can guard multiple positions on the wings.  He may have an ugly looking shot, but corner three goes in for him at above a league-average rate - at least it still was last year - and you may recall how many of those exact shots were missed by the rotating cast of inept Cleveland shooters.  Not only that, but he's an extremely smart offensive player, and very unselfish; not unlike the Finals MVP Andre Iguodala.  He also could have allowed an additional couple of minutes of rest for Lebron at the 3 and the 4, which would have meant that the best player on the court wouldn't have been absolutely exhausted at the end of games which were often very close; and Lebron with an extra inch of lift on a jump-shot here or there would have been the difference in a couple of eventual Cleveland losses.  I could understand not using him if he was playing as poorly as J.R. Smith did throughout most of the series, but to not even try him out when you're down to a 7 1/2 man rotation (again, J.R. Smith was reeeaally bad)?  That doesn't make any sense, unless he had some injury which they never reported, which would be understandable.  Otherwise it's just bad coaching.
     My other point of serious concern with David Blatt is Cleveland's total lack of offensive fluidity all year, but especially in the playoffs.  He never seemed to know where his team's best shots were coming from, nor especially how to build lineups to accentuate their strengths; and that was never more evident than in Game 6.  All year long, their offense had pretty much been what Miami's offense had been throughout 2011: give the ball to one of their two superstar ball handlers, and then stand around and wait for them to do something.  It worked throughout the regular season, and even though it was occasionally a problem it worked overall for them in the playoffs too against overmatched defenses.  But it's not going to work against the best defense in the league, and once Kyrie Irving went down late in Game 1, everything changed...and nothing did, depending on how you look at it.  Instead of being able to take possessions off while Kyrie dribbled it around and created shots, Lebron had to do everything himself; but it was essentially the same offense: give it to the superstar and wait.  It nearly worked only because Lebron presents an almost unsolvable match-up when he plays aggressively in the post: small forwards can't guard him under there because he's too strong, but you can't put a big man on him either because he'll just pull the ball out and run past the big, straight to an open layup.  If he had resigned himself entirely to post-ups, he probably would have shot around 50% for the series; he got himself into trouble, though, talking fall-away jumpers from mid and long range against a fantastic defense player in Andre Iguodala, but he still was a beast through the first 5 games down in the paint.  Then came Game 6.
     You may have watched the Game and thought early on, like so many people, "Why is Lebron passing the ball so much; why does he look so passive in a do-or-die game?"  My theory, also like many others', was that he was trying to conserve energy for a fourth quarter push; but it was Jeff Van Gundy, I think it was, who pointed out what the real problem was: with Timofey Mozgov on the floor, Lebron didn't have the space in the post he really needed to be aggressive on that left block he loves so much, without risking a double team from whomever was guarding the big Russian center - and that was usually either Draymond Green or Andre Iguodala, both of whom are All-NBA caliber defenders, and one of whom was usually already guarding Lebron.  So rather than risk that, he was driving to the basket - but not getting enough contact for calls - shooting long jump-shots, or passing it off.  That was not Lebron's fault: he was trying to maximize his team's chances to take smart shots by not forcing up his own over difficult double teams.  That fault lies with David Blatt, who refused to make the necessary adjustment and take Mozgov out until it was too late.  Yes, he was great for Cleveland on defense, but by the second half it was pretty clear that the defensive end of the ball was their second biggest problem: their most crucial issue was that, up against a really good defense, the team didn't know how to run an offensive set because it had never had to do so all year; the only viable solution to which was to give the ball to your best player and create the best environment for him to dominate.  By leaving Mozgov on the floor, especially at the start of the 4th quarter and down 13 points, you stifled your already anemic offense by not allowing the Best Player in the Game to get his best shots.  I thought for sure that at that point, at least, they would try changing it up and forcing it into the post for James to go to work, try to go on an offensive run, but David Blatt was so afraid to make any changes to a rotation which was admittedly devastated by injuries, that it lost them Game 6 - at the very least.
     Which brings me to a point on which not too many people would agree with me, but I'm still right and they're not: Kyrie Irving's unjury in this series didn't hurt them as much as you would initially think; but not being able to play Kevin Love killed them.
     Allow me to explain.  You remember that offense I mentioned that Cleveland mostly ran when Irving and James were both on the floor?  They ran it the entirety of Game 1 and still lost in overtime.  Not only that, but Kyrie would not really be adding shots to the team; he would be taking away shots from Lebron.  See, the majority of his shots came off the dribble from his own penetration, or from set plays designed to get him looks; which, you may have noticed, is exactly how Lebron generates his own shots.  They, in essence, share the exact same shot attempts; everyone else on the team was essentially getting shots off of either a Lebron James or Kyrie irving isolation.  So when Irving went down, it didn't really mean that Cav's offense was going to change; it just meant that Lebron's usage rate was going to sky-rocket.  And if you want to know what happens when a usage rate gets that high in the NBA, just ask Russel Westbrook after this season, or Allen Iverson after basically his entire career: your field goal percentage will plummet.  It's the nature of the NBA beast, where defenses and defenders are too good and too smart to allow a single player to beat them by shooting 40 times a game: they force you to rely on teammates, and if that doesn't work you aren't going to win.
     Which is where Kevin Love's injury killed Cleveland.  You know what happens if he was able to play, but Irving wasn't?  Lebron could have posted as much as he wanted to in Game 6 without fear of those dreaded Dramond Green/Andre Iguodala double teams.  You know why?  Because Kevin Love has range, but he's so much more than just a stretch 4 or 5.  He would have given given you an even better post threat than Mozgov if you wanted to punish Golden State for going small, but when you wanted to post Lebron he could have stepped out to the corner and waited for one of two things to happen: Lebron to score in the post on an overwhelmed defender, or Lebron would have passed it to him in the corner for an open 3.  That single dynamic would have changed the way that the Warriors were able to defend as a team, and might have been enough to swing the series; not to mention the fact that Kevin Love's rebounding is just as good as Tristan Thompsan's, so you don't lose anything there, but his outlet passes might be the best in the league - another wrinkle that adds dimensions to an offense sorely in need of variety.  Kyrie - as great of a player as he is - does not really provide any new offensive threats, he just presents a separate threat that's pretty much the same as Lebron, only shorter.  I maintain that if Irving had been healthy, and Blatt didn't expand his bench anymore than he actually did, the Warriors still win the series in 6 or 7.  Without Irving, but using Marion, I still think the Warriors win in 6 or 7; and even if both Kyrie and Kevin Love are healthy and playing, the Warriors still take Game 7 at home because Love was never more than an afterthought when both Lebron and Irving were playing.  But you put Kevin Love in the lineup, with the versatility he brings to your offense, and all other things remaining the same, and the Cavs might have been able to win it in 7.  If Love can play, and Blatt gives the Matrix some minutes, I think Cleveland could have won that series.  But what do I know; that's just my humble - but nonetheless correct - opinion.

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